Calculate a bluff

By Tommy Angelo
We discussed earlier as well to calculate his bets when you believe have the best hand. Now let's talk about how to properly calculate its bluffs. The principles involved will be very simple.

The basic rule

As with the size of the updates, we will leave a simple principle.

Bet enough to get the job done and no more.

A bluff implies two things: having a hand (or a range of hands) that your opponent may have and bet enough so that your opponent folds.

You're not bluffing to force your opponent to fold. You're bluffing so your opponent folds if there a range of hands in particular. You will never know with certainty what hand your opponent has. Depending on how the hand is played, you can determine if your opponent has at least a pair. But perhaps it will surprise you and will show you the nuts (or another very strong hand).

Obviously, any won't lie down your opponent. This is not your goal. If you believe that your opponent probably has a pair and you want to do to sleep when he has a pair, bet enough to lie with a pair, and no more.

Therefore, when the time comes to calculate your bluff, decide first what hand you are targeting. The size of your bluff depends on to get the job done.

Here is an example of a calculation of the size of a bluff is in horrible ways according to our rule of thumb.
The main Event of the WSOP 1979 Hal Fowler (an amateur) was head-to-head against Bobby Hoff (an expert) for the title. For this hand, each player had about 200K tokens.

There was a raise and a call before the flop. The pot was about 20 k at this stage. The flop fell:


The next action was check-check. The turning point was a Tc. Again, the action was check-check. The river brought a 7s.

Fowler now went all-in (190K in a 20K pot). Hoff lay is Fowler proudly showed a bluff.

Even if the game worked (and Fowler won), of Fowler was atrocious. Any valet supplemented nuts and if Hoff had it, it would be not lying is, regardless of the size of the establishment. And if Hoff did not this valet, he would be lying against any reasonable.

Fowler has risked 190K while he could risk 15K or 20K and won the pot. Fowler is rescued with the pot because Hoff had no valet and this hand has fallen into obscurity.

On the other hand, if Hoff had the valet, this hand would have told as one of the biggest blunders of the WSOP. Do not repeat this error.

A little more on the work that needs to be done

May be - this obvious, but it's still worth mentioning. The amount needed to get the job done is not always easy to determine.

You can not think in this way:

"And well, $ 20 should make him sleep a pair of 2. $ 25 should make him sleep a pair of 3s. $ 50 should make him sleep a pair of 6 and $ 100 should make him sleeping Kings. $ 200 should make her bedroom 2 pairs and $ 500 should make him sleep a straight.

Things don't work that way at all. Find the right amount to wager is a psychological problem more than anything else. "If I update X$, on what it will be, how will see this pot and his involvement in the pot. '' Will he see his pair of ladies being a profitable hand? "You must enter in the head of your opponents and see your updates from this perspective.

Of course, sometimes a smaller bet may do the job. When it will not be the case (or if you suspect that this will not be the case), a small bluff will be certainly better than a big bluff less risks and more chance of success.

There is no formula to tell you what bet to get the job done. You need to analyze each situation separately.

An exception to the basic rule

You might want to bet more than is necessary to get the job done if you make a bluff on the next betting period. If you bluff the turn and finally the River, you will not want to bluff the minimum necessary. A planned bluff requires an extra to the original plan because you can win a larger pot in the next period.

For example, suppose that you bet $ 500 to bluff in a pot of $ 1,000. Your opponent calls. The pot is now $ 2000. You're bluffing again and this time above your opponent folds. You have won $ 1500 (the $ 1000 which was originally in the pot over the call of $ 500 from your opponent).

If you had bet $ 800 instead of $ 500 on the first period, your bluff to the second period would have earned you $ 1800 instead of $ 1500. A few times, this extra implementation will influence the size of your bluff. See the following chapter "bluff the turn and river" for more details.

When a bigger update will make bedroom more hands

You will generally not able to read the hand of opponents in enough detail to know what cards they are exactly. You will always have a general idea: "I think it has something like a pair of ladies, but it can also have slowplaye a set or have the straight draw."

The different strength of hands will require bluffs of different size to get the job done. If your opponent one missed its the flush draw, maybe any setting will do the trick to induce him to lie. If your opponent has a pair, maybe call it a quarter of the pot, but lie on a bet two-thirds of the pot. And perhaps he never set a set, regardless of the setting you make.

Find the exact placing for a bluff is important to maximize your investment. For example, suppose you have to choose between 2 sizes of bluff: ¼ of the size of the pot and 2/3. (Say that the pot contains $ 300 and that candidates are $ 75 and $ 200.)

You believe that your opponent can have 1 of the three following hands: a missed flush draw, a pair or a set. You think it may have a the 30% of the time missed flush draw, a pair of 60% of the time and a 10% of the time set.

A bet of $ 75 will do it bedroom his draw to the flush missed about 80% of the time (you'll be bluff-raisé on a few occasions) and a pair of 20% of the time.

A bet of $ 200 will do it bedroom its the 90% of the time missed flush draw and a pair of 70% of the time. The set will never set.

The expected value of the bet of $ 75 is now $ 60.

$ 60 = (0.30) [(0.80)(300$) + (0.20)(-75$)] +.
(0.60) [(0.20)(300$) + (0.80)(-75$)] +.
(0.10)($- 75)

The expected value of a bet of $ 200 is $ 145.

$ 145 = (0.30) [(0.90)(300$) + (0.10)(-200$)] +.
(0.60) [(0.70)(300$) + (0.30)(-200$)] +.
(0.10)(- $ 200)

In this example, $ 200 is the best size of bluff. You will be better to try to make bedroom draw the missed flush and the pair that only the missed flush draw.

At the table, of course, you won't be able to solve equations like these (knowing the specific percentages for each implementation). Do that think of the hands that your opponent is likely to hold and what hands among them may sleep with when setting. Choose the setting that will give you the most profit for the least risk.